Friday
Sunny, with a high near 79. Calm wind becoming southeast around 5 mph in the
morning.
Surface winds south east 7 mph.
At 1 PM (six models):
Updraft velocity: 500 - 700 fpm
TOL: 4,000’ – 6,000’
Wind TOUL: 9 - 14 mph, southeast
B/S: 4 – 10
HRRR 3 only at 2 PM:
Updraft velocity: 736 fpm
TOL: 7,000’
Wind TOUL: 10 mph, south southeast
B/S: 10
TOL winds 16 mph south southwest at Keystone at 4 PM
Georgia is possible, but mixed conditions.
Friday morning:
HRRR 3 at 11 AM:
Updraft velocity: 616 fpm
TOL: 4,970’
Wind TOUL: 8 mph, south southeast
B/S: 8.3
Skew-T says cu’s at 4,200’ at 11 AM.
TOL winds 14 mph south southwest at Folkston at 4 PM
Yes, cloudbase was 4,200' at 11 AM. The lift was a bit weaker, maybe 400 fpm updraft velocity. Winds were south southwest up north of Starke but more like 9 mph.
Friday surface conditions at Leesburg airfield:
Time | Wind | Temp |
16:53 | SE 5 | 75 |
15:53 | Vrbl 3 | 77 |
14:53 | SE 6 | 76 |
13:53 | SE 6 | 74 |
12:53 | Vrbl 3 | 74 |
11:53 | SE 6 | 73 |
10:53 | S 10 | 71 |
09:53 | E 8 | 69 |
08:53 | E 6 | 64 |
07:53 | Calm | 57 |
Overall the Tuesday night forecast got it right. See article on the flight below.
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